Thursday, October 25, 2012

THE WORDS BELOW ARE FROM JOHN WILNER'S COLUMN IN THE SAN JOSE MERCURY PUBLISHED TODAY



  FOR WILNER'S ORGINAL COLUM CUT AND PASTE BELOW:

 http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2012/10/25/football-graduation-rates-poor-results-for-cal-plus-info-on-stanford-and-san-jose-state/
 

I’ll have numbers for Stanford and SJSU posted here shortly, but let’s get to the most significant academic development for the Bay Area football programs:
Cal’s poor showing in the two key metrics released by the NCAA on Thursday, the Graduation Success Rate (GSR) and the Federal Graduation Rate (FGR).

I’m expecting a statement from Cal today in response to the numbers and will publish it here upon arrival (you know it’s bad if there’s a statement).
Here are the latest raw numbers:
For the freshmen classes that entered school from 2002-05, Cal’s football GSR was 48 percent and its FGR was 47 percent.
How bad is that? It’s only the lowest GSR in the Pac-12 — lower than Arizona State (63%) … lower than Washington State (53%) … lower than all of ‘em.
That’s worse than losing Big Game. Much, much worse.
How does that compare to Cal’s past performance under Jeff Tedford? Here are the GSR/FGR figures for the previous four years and this year.
2007-08: 53/45
2008-09: 64/57
2009-10: 65/62
2010-11: 54/52
2011-12: 48/47
Cal’s showing is not a complete surprise given the declining Academic Progress Rate scores we saw this summer.
As I noted when the APRs were released: The academic situation could serve to undermine Tedford’s support on campus if the on-field success waned. (And waned it has.)
What does it all mean?
The Federal numbers are provided because they are the only means of comparing athletes to non-athletes, but the GSRs provide a more accurate reflection of an athletic department’s performance because they take transfers into account:
Outgoing athletes who aren’t counted against the school (provided they leave in good academic standing).
The figures released Thursday are a four-year average for freshmen who entered school in the fall of 2002 through the fall of 2005.
For Cal, that means all four classes included in the calculation are Tedford recruits.
*** On a positive note for Cal: Men’s basketball.
The graduation figures continued to improve under coach Mike Montgomery, whose recruits aren’t even included in the data — he’s doing it with Ben Braun’s players.
(The Bears’ performance in the classroom during the Braun era was … how should we say it? … considerably less than stellar.)
The GSR/FGR numbers for the past four years:
2008-09: 20/15
2009-10: 30/15
2010-11: 33/20
2011-12: 50/36

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